Microsoft publicly confirms or denies the suspension of its PERM green-card sponsorship program in an official statement, SEC filing or regulatory filing before 2026-11-10.
Posted 2026-10-11 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Microsoft publicly confirms or denies the suspension of its PERM green-card sponsorship program in an official statement, SEC filing or regulatory filing before 2026-11-10.
Reasoning trace
- VP Vance publicly stated the administration suspended Microsoft's PERM program
- Microsoft faces employee and investor pressure to confirm status of thousands of pending petitions
- company must speak publicly on labor-force disruption of this magnitude
Evidence so far
8 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-11) — 67% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.