The Spanish Congress of Deputies will approve the government's anti-eviction decree in a convalidation vote by 30 October 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Spanish Congress of Deputies will approve the government's anti-eviction decree in a convalidation vote by 30 October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- The eviction of an 87-year-old woman triggered mass protests over Spain's housing crisis
- The government issued an anti-eviction decree to respond to public pressure
- Congress holds a convalidation vote and approves the decree
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 78% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Spanish Congress of Deputies publishes the official agenda (Orden del Día) for the October 2026 Plenary Session listing the anti-eviction decree for a convalidation vote
- leading indicator The Spanish Official Gazette (BOE) publishes the anti-eviction decree with a note indicating it is submitted to the Congress of Deputies for convalidation
- precondition The Spanish government formally submits the anti-eviction decree to the Congress of Deputies for convalidation
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.