Will the Paraguayan Senate convict Santiago Peña by 5 January 2027?
Posted 2026-11-06 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Santiago Peña is the President of Paraguay, and the Paraguayan Senate holds the constitutional authority to conduct impeachment trials. This question addresses the potential removal of the sitting head of state through a formal legislative vote.
The claim
By 2027-01-05, the Paraguayan Senate has voted to convict Santiago Peña in his impeachment trial, removing him from the presidency.
Reasoning trace
- Ueno Bank's collapse froze deposits for millions of Paraguayans, triggering mass protests and a political crisis centered on Peña.
- The Chamber of Deputies unanimously impeached Peña and blocked his resignation, sending the case to the Senate.
- With Horacio Cartes withdrawing support and public pressure mounting, the Senate convicts Peña and removes him from office.
Evidence so far
13 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-07) — 68% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.