Will the FAA publish the draft PEIS for SpaceX Starship at Boca Chica by 28 October 2026?

probability 84% deadline 2026-10-28 (13d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-14 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the U.S. regulatory body responsible for overseeing commercial space launches. A Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) is a required federal document that assesses the potential environmental effects of a proposed project before it can proceed.

The claim

The FAA publishes the draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for the SpaceX Starship-Super Heavy launch operations at the Boca Chica Launch Site in Texas by 2026-10-28.

Reasoning trace

Standard NEPA procedural timelines for a Programmatic EIS following a Notice of Intent.
High visibility of the SpaceX program and regulatory scrutiny of commercial spaceflight environmental impacts.
The specific mention of a 'Public Scoping Period' in the signal implies an imminent start to the draft preparation phase.

Evidence so far

2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-15) — 78% at mint → 84% today.

What to watch

precondition The FAA publishes a Notice of Intent (NOI) to prepare a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for SpaceX Starship operations in the Federal Register observed
milestone The FAA concludes the public scoping period for the SpaceX Starship-Super Heavy launch operations PEIS contradicted
precondition The FAA publishes a Federal Register notice announcing the start of the public scoping period for the SpaceX Starship-Super Heavy PEIS observed

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.