Will zero coups or unconstitutional changes of government occur in G20 states before 19 December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-24 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The G20 is an international forum comprising major advanced and emerging economies. This forecast concerns the stability of governmental transitions within these member states over the specified period.
The claim
Zero coups or unconstitutional changes of government occur in G20 states before 2026-12-19.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: g20_coup (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 86% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The UN Human Rights Council publishes a draft resolution or agenda item specifically addressing a change of government in a G20 state
- leading indicator A G20 state's head of state or government issues a public statement declaring the suspension of international treaty obligations due to a domestic regime change.
- milestone A G20 state's foreign ministry issues a public notice of intent to suspend or withdraw from an international treaty citing domestic regime change.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.