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By 2026-10-28, Teva will announce the commercial launch of DEGEVMA in the U.S. market.

probability 80% deadline 2026-10-28 (29d left) Market

Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 2026-10-28, Teva will announce the commercial launch of DEGEVMA in the U.S. market.

Reasoning trace

  1. FDA approval granted
  2. Teva prepares supply chain and pricing
  3. Teva announces launch

Evidence so far

1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 70% at mint → 80% today.

What to watch

  • leading indicator Teva's investor relations website lists DEGEVMA as 'available' or 'launched' in the United States
  • leading indicator DEGEVMA is listed as in-stock or available for order on major U.S. pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) or wholesaler portals
  • milestone The FDA publishes a final approval letter for DEGEVMA on its website or in the Federal Register

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.