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Will a New Mexico court issue a final judgment against Meta by 10 October 2026?

probability 80% deadline 2026-10-10 (13d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-26 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Meta Platforms is a technology company subject to civil litigation in New Mexico. The case involves a jury finding regarding misleading statements, with the court tasked with determining specific monetary penalties or damages.

The claim

By October 10, 2026, the New Mexico court will issue a final judgment against Meta, determining the specific monetary penalties or civil damages to be paid for the 43 million misleading statements found by the jury.

Reasoning trace

  1. Jury verdict already rendered finding liability for millions of violations
  2. State's request for penalties is pending and standard procedure follows verdict
  3. Legal timeline typically moves to sentencing/judgment phase post-verdict

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-27) — 80% at mint → 80% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The State of New Mexico files a motion for judgment or a brief on the issue of penalties in the public court docket for the Meta misleading statements case. observed

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.