Will the US DOJ or Treasury seize Iranian-linked oil tanker cargo by 15 November 2026?
Posted 2026-08-28 — 79 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Department of Justice and the Department of Treasury are federal agencies responsible for enforcing sanctions and managing asset forfeiture. This forecast concerns the potential legal action against vessels or cargo linked to Iran's oil trade.
The claim
The US Department of Justice or Treasury seizes or announces forfeiture proceedings against at least one additional Iranian-linked oil tanker cargo before 15 November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- DOJ activates historic prize/forfeiture law
- US Navy blockade enables physical interdictions
- Administration signals sustained enforcement cadence
- Additional seizure/forfeiture announced within window
Evidence so far
42 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 30 times since mint (last on 2026-09-23) — 72% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The vessel intercepted is confirmed to be carrying crude oil or refined petroleum products originating from or linked to Iran contradicted
- precondition The US Navy or Coast Guard physically interdicts and secures an Iranian-linked oil tanker in international waters or a US port observed
- precondition The US Navy or Coast Guard physically interdicts and secures the specific Iranian-linked oil tanker cargo in international waters or a port jurisdiction
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.