Will Russia conduct missile or drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure causing blackouts in two oblasts by 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-31 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Russian Federation and Ukraine are parties to a military conflict. Energy facilities in Ukrainian oblasts have been subject to missile and drone attacks in prior periods of that conflict. The forecast concerns whether a new series of such strikes, occurring after the Oleshky evacuation, will produce blackouts in at least two oblasts by the deadline.
The claim
By 30 November 2026, Russia will conduct at least one new series of missile or drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that causes new blackouts in at least two Ukrainian oblasts, after the Oleshky evacuation is completed.
Reasoning trace
- Localised truce ends or is not extended
- Russia resumes its winter infrastructure-strike campaign
- New blackouts are reported in multiple Ukrainian oblasts
Evidence so far
43 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 4 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 16 times since mint (last on 2026-11-06) — 17% at mint → 80% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.