A publicly reported Houthi attack, interdiction, or formal transit restriction event in the Bab el-Mandeb or southern Red Sea will be reported on or before 2026-10-30.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
A publicly reported Houthi attack, interdiction, or formal transit restriction event in the Bab el-Mandeb or southern Red Sea will be reported on or before 2026-10-30.
Reasoning trace
- security concreteness +0.037 + P-2026 Houthi Bab el-Mandeb resolution to 0.95 + market↔security r=0.92 coupling + fear 0.61 / anger 0.63 atmosphere
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 75% at mint → 87% today.
What to watch
- precondition A commercial vessel reports a missile or drone impact or near-miss in the Bab el-Mandeb strait or southern Red Sea via AIS distress signal, news report, or port authority notice.
- leading indicator The Houthi-led military spokesperson issues a statement or video release confirming an attack on a specific ship name or coordinates.
- precondition A commercial vessel or naval asset in the Bab el-Mandeb or southern Red Sea reports a confirmed Houthi projectile impact or near-miss incident.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.