Will the PBoC keep the one-year LPR unchanged on 20 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-26 — 24 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People's Republic of China. It sets the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), a benchmark interest rate used for pricing loans in the Chinese economy.
The claim
The PBoC leaves the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at the 2026-10-20 monthly fixing.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: pboc_lpr (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-26) — 81% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The National Interbank Funding Center publishes the October 2026 1-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate on 2026-09-25
- precondition The People's Bank of China publishes the September 2026 LPR table on its official website on 2026-09-20 showing the 1-year LPR at 3.0%
- precondition The PBoC leaves the 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at its 2026-10-15 policy meeting
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.