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By 2026-10-28, Nidec will announce the appointment of a new CEO.

probability 79% deadline 2026-10-28 (29d left) Manufacturing

Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

By 2026-10-28, Nidec will announce the appointment of a new CEO.

Reasoning trace

  1. CEO Kishida set to resign over e-axle losses
  2. Board must fill leadership vacuum to reassure investors and stabilize operations
  3. Nidec announces a new CEO

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 87% at mint → 79% today.

What to watch

  • precondition Nidec files a material fact report (Shoken Hokokusho) with the Tokyo Stock Exchange disclosing the $3.8bn impairment loss and management changes.
  • milestone Nidec's Board of Directors holds a formal meeting to approve the resignation of Shiro Kishida.
  • precondition Nidec's board of directors formally approves the appointment of a successor to the CEO role

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.