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Will the US Army award Navitas Semiconductor a contract under ALATTIS by 14 October 2026?

probability 80% deadline 2026-10-14 (14d left) Technology

Posted 2026-09-30 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Navitas Semiconductor is a technology company specializing in power semiconductor solutions. The ALATTIS program is a US Army initiative focused on developing advanced tactical communications and networking capabilities.

The claim

The US Army will issue a specific task order or contract award to Navitas Semiconductor under the ALATTIS program by October 14, 2026, following the grant announcement.

Reasoning trace

  1. Navitas was explicitly selected by the ALATTIS program to develop ≥10 kV SiC power devices.
  2. The goal includes validating a domestic manufacturing process, a key strategic priority for the US Army.
  3. Government funding is noted as helping tackle difficult manufacturing setups, implying a structured engagement beyond a simple grant.

Evidence so far

3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 80% today.

What to watch

  • leading indicator The US Army publishes a public notice of award or contract action document naming Navitas Semiconductor for the ALATTIS program.
  • leading indicator The US Army publishes a public notice of award or contract action for the ALATTIS program on SAM.gov or a federal procurement database.
  • milestone Navitas Semiconductor files a Form 8-K with the SEC referencing a material contract or task order with the US Army.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.