By 2026-10-28, at least one other major brokerage (e.g., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America) will issue a downgrade or negative rating action on Roblox, following Jefferies' Underperform call.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, at least one other major brokerage (e.g., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America) will issue a downgrade or negative rating action on Roblox, following Jefferies' Underperform call.
Reasoning trace
- Jefferies downgrades Roblox to Underperform with a $38 price target, causing a 6% stock drop.
- Other brokerages reassess Roblox's fundamentals and see the downgrade as a catalyst to adjust their own ratings.
- At least one major brokerage issues a similar downgrade or negative action within the window.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Roblox's stock price falls below the $38 price target set by Jefferies observed
- leading indicator Morgan Stanley publishes a research note or public disclosure indicating a rating change to Underperform or equivalent negative stance on Roblox
- leading indicator Goldman Sachs publishes a research note or public disclosure indicating a rating change to Underweight or equivalent negative stance on Roblox
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.