The FAA issues a final rule rescinding all existing single-pilot exemptions for certain Cessna aircraft by October 28, 2026.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The FAA issues a final rule rescinding all existing single-pilot exemptions for certain Cessna aircraft by October 28, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- FAA announces policy change to cease issuing single-pilot exemptions for Cessna aircraft
- FAA initiates separate rulemaking to formally rescind existing exemptions
- FAA issues final rule rescinding all such exemptions
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 83% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- precondition The FAA publishes a final rule or policy statement announcing the cessation of new single-pilot exemption issuances for Cessna aircraft
- milestone The FAA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register specifically targeting the rescission of existing Cessna single-pilot exemptions
- milestone The FAA publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register to rescind single-pilot operating exemptions for Cessna aircraft
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.