Will zero coups or unconstitutional changes of government occur in G20 states before 14 October 2026?
Posted 2026-08-19 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The G20 is an international forum comprising the world's largest advanced and emerging economies. Unconstitutional changes of government refer to the seizure of power through non-legal means, such as military intervention or forced removal of elected leaders.
The claim
Zero coups or unconstitutional changes of government occur in G20 states before 2026-10-14.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: g20_coup (instance 1)
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 19 times since mint (last on 2026-09-08) — 99% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- precondition No G20 member state declares a state of emergency, martial law, or suspends the constitution prior to the window
- precondition No G20 member state experiences a violent seizure of key government infrastructure (e.g., parliament, presidential palace) by armed non-state actors
- precondition No G20 state experiences a successful seizure of executive power by a sub-national group that disrupts the continuity of constitutional governance during the 2026-08-19 to 2026-10-14 period.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.