The next Eurostat flash HICP release, published by 2026-11-02, reports euro-area year-over-year inflation at or above 2.5 percent.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 24 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The next Eurostat flash HICP release, published by 2026-11-02, reports euro-area year-over-year inflation at or above 2.5 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: ea_hicp_flash (instance 4)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 78% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone Eurostat publishes the final HICP estimate for September 2026
- leading indicator Eurostat publishes the flash HICP estimate for October 2026 on its website
- precondition Eurostat publishes the flash HICP release for October 2026 on its website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.