Will CDC declare a measles outbreak of 50+ cases in a US state by Nov 30, 2026?
Posted 2026-08-22 — 100 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention monitors infectious disease trends across the United States. Kindergarten vaccination rates are a key public health metric used to assess community immunity against preventable diseases like measles.
The claim
At least one major measles outbreak (50+ confirmed cases in a single US state) is officially declared by the CDC or a state health department by November 30, 2026, linked to declining kindergarten vaccination rates.
Reasoning trace
- Kindergarten MMR vaccination rates decline as non-medical exemptions reach record 4.2%
- HHS restructures vaccine recommendation categories, creating confusion among parents and providers
- Back-to-school season (September) creates high-density transmission environment
- CDC declares measles outbreak in at least one state with 50+ confirmed cases
Evidence so far
34 confirming · 0 denying signals · 11 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 51 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 75% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone The CDC releases the annual School Health Lines (SHL) or National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child) report detailing state-level kindergarten MMR coverage rates observed
- milestone The CDC publishes its annual Kindergarten Vaccination Survey (KVS) or state health departments release their annual immunization data for the relevant school year observed
- precondition The state health department's epidemiological surveillance system identifies and laboratory-confirmed 50 distinct measles cases within the state's jurisdiction during the specified window. observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.