At least one major measles outbreak (50+ confirmed cases in a single US state) is officially declared by the CDC or a state health department by November 30, 2026, linked to declining kindergarten vaccination rates.

probability 82% deadline 2026-11-30 (60d left) Healthcare

Posted 2026-08-22 — 100 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

Kindergarten MMR vaccination rates decline as non-medical exemptions reach record 4.2%
HHS restructures vaccine recommendation categories, creating confusion among parents and providers
Back-to-school season (September) creates high-density transmission environment
CDC declares measles outbreak in at least one state with 50+ confirmed cases

Evidence so far

27 confirming · 0 denying signals · 11 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 46 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 75% at mint → 82% today.

What to watch

milestone The CDC releases the annual School Health Lines (SHL) or National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child) report detailing state-level kindergarten MMR coverage rates observed
milestone The CDC publishes its annual Kindergarten Vaccination Survey (KVS) or state health departments release their annual immunization data for the relevant school year observed
precondition The state health department's epidemiological surveillance system identifies and laboratory-confirmed 50 distinct measles cases within the state's jurisdiction during the specified window. observed

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.