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The FCC will issue a public notice accepting for filing the application by SpaceX and Grain Management for consent to transfer Grain's spectrum portfolio, and will set a pleading cycle for petitions to deny, on or before 2026-10-30.

probability 82% deadline 2026-10-30 (20d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-09 — 21 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

The FCC will issue a public notice accepting for filing the application by SpaceX and Grain Management for consent to transfer Grain's spectrum portfolio, and will set a pleading cycle for petitions to deny, on or before 2026-10-30.

Reasoning trace

  1. SpaceX announces purchase of the Grain spectrum portfolio
  2. The transfer of FCC spectrum licenses requires the parties to file an application for consent
  3. The FCC issues a public notice accepting the application and setting a comment cycle

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 75% at mint → 82% today.

What to watch

  • precondition SpaceX and Grain Management file a formal application for consent to transfer spectrum licenses with the FCC
  • leading indicator The FCC's Electronic Comment Filing System (ECFS) logs the receipt of the SpaceX/Grain transfer application
  • precondition The FCC publishes a public notice accepting the SpaceX and Grain Management application for consent to transfer the spectrum portfolio for filing.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.