Will the U.S. Department of the Interior hold the first offshore mineral lease sale by November 30, 2026?
Posted 2026-10-24 — 37 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The U.S. Department of the Interior manages federal mineral resources and oversees leasing activities on the Outer Continental Shelf. This forecast concerns whether the agency will execute its initial sale of offshore mineral rights, specifically including copper, by the specified deadline.
The claim
The U.S. Department of the Interior will conduct the first offshore mineral lease sale in U.S. history, including at least one lease for copper, by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- The Trump administration has formally scheduled the first offshore mineral lease sale for November 2026.
- The sale covers 31 million acres of seabed near American Samoa designated for critical minerals, including copper.
- The scheduled event will occur within the allowed window.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 76% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.