Will the Fed under Warsh hold rates or cut max 25bp by 30 Sep 2026 with CPI above 4%?
Posted 2026-09-15, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, responsible for setting monetary policy and managing inflation. Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor and economist who has been discussed as a potential candidate for the Fed chair. This forecast concerns the interaction between monetary policy decisions, political pressure, and inflation metrics.
The claim
By 2026-09-30, the Federal Reserve under Warsh holds policy rates unchanged or cuts by no more than 25bp, despite Trump pressure, as headline CPI remains above 4% for at least 2 consecutive months
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
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