By 2026-11-30, SK Hynix or Samsung will publicly announce that its 2027 HBM capacity is fully committed or sold out, following Micron's disclosure that more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-30, SK Hynix or Samsung will publicly announce that its 2027 HBM capacity is fully committed or sold out, following Micron's disclosure that more than 75% of its 2027 output is already committed.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Memory suppliers' sold-out capacity announcements in a supply shortage ≈ 70%
- Micron's Q4 FY26 earnings call disclosed >75% of 2027 output already committed and customer discussions shifting to 2028, setting a precedent for capacity-allocation disclosures.
- SK Hynix and Samsung face the same AI-driven HBM demand with inventories below 10 days, so they are likely to communicate similar allocation status in their late-October Q3 earnings calls.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.