The Dutch government formally rejects Russia's extradition request for ICC President Tomoko Akane and eight other ICC officials by 2026-10-30.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 21 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Dutch government formally rejects Russia's extradition request for ICC President Tomoko Akane and eight other ICC officials by 2026-10-30.
Reasoning trace
- US sanctions ICC and Russia requests extradition of ICC President Tomoko Akane
- Netherlands as host state is legally bound by the Rome Statute to protect ICC officials from prosecution
- Dutch government formally rejects the extradition request
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- precondition The Dutch Ministry of Justice publishes a formal notice in the Staatsblad or on its official website confirming the receipt of Russia's extradition request for Tomoko Akane.
- leading indicator The Dutch government issues a public statement or legal opinion citing the Rome Statute's immunity provisions as the basis for rejecting the extradition request.
- leading indicator The Dutch Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion or public statement confirming that the eight named ICC officials are covered by the immunity provisions of the Rome Statute.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.