The US Treasury or OFAC publicly issues a general license, waiver, or guidance explicitly authorizing imports of Russian diesel or related petroleum products into the United States by 2026-11-21.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 43 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Treasury or OFAC publicly issues a general license, waiver, or guidance explicitly authorizing imports of Russian diesel or related petroleum products into the United States by 2026-11-21.
Reasoning trace
- Trump announces diesel deal with Putin on 2026-10-08/09
- Pre-midterm pressure to lower pump prices requires fast implementation
- OFAC must publish a license or General License amending the Russia-related sanctions program to permit the import
- Industry (refiners, shippers) demands written guidance before transacting
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 78% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US Department of Energy or Department of Commerce publishes a public report or official statement confirming that US refiners or shippers have secured binding commercial agreements for Russian diesel imports.
- milestone The White House or US Treasury issues a public statement or executive order directing OFAC to facilitate the implementation of the Russian diesel import agreement.
- milestone The US Department of the Treasury publishes a draft or final rule in the Federal Register amending 31 CFR Part 587 to authorize the import of Russian diesel.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.