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Will Meta Platforms file a notice of appeal from the New Mexico judgment by 20 November 2026?

probability 77% deadline 2026-11-20 (28d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-21 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Meta Platforms is a technology company that operates social media services. The First Judicial District Court of New Mexico is a state trial court with jurisdiction over civil matters in that district. This question concerns the procedural step of appealing a financial judgment rendered by that court.

The claim

Meta Platforms files a notice of appeal from the New Mexico $25 billion judgment in the First Judicial District Court of New Mexico by 2026-11-20.

Reasoning trace

  1. New Mexico court enters a $25 billion judgment against Meta
  2. Meta must act by the 30-day deadline to preserve appellate rights
  3. Meta files a notice of appeal in New Mexico state court by 2026-11-20

Evidence so far

7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 6 times since mint (last on 2026-10-22) — 76% at mint → 77% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The New Mexico First Judicial District Court docket shows the entry of the $25 billion judgment against Meta Platforms. observed
  • milestone Meta Platforms files a notice of appeal with the First Judicial District Court of New Mexico, creating a dated filing record in the trial court docket.
  • leading indicator The First Judicial District Court clerk transmits the appeal record and notice of appeal to the New Mexico Supreme Court or designated appellate court, generating a transmission date or receipt confirmation.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.