Will the CME FedWatch Tool show >50% odds of a Fed rate hike in December 2026?
Posted 2026-10-15 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The CME FedWatch Tool is a market-based indicator that estimates the probability of Federal Reserve interest rate changes based on futures pricing. The Federal Reserve sets the benchmark interest rate for the US economy, and its decisions are closely monitored by financial markets.
The claim
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a probability of greater than 50% for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its December 2026 meeting.
Reasoning trace
- PPI jumped to 6.3% annually, significantly above the 5.3% forecast
- Core PPI rose to 5.0%, exceeding expectations and signaling broad-based price pressure
- Follows a hot CPI report, reinforcing the trend of persistent inflation
- Fed officials have previously signaled a hawkish bias if inflation does not moderate
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-16) — 63% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The CME FedWatch Tool updates its displayed probability for a December 2026 rate hike to exceed 50%. observed
- precondition The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
- leading indicator The CME FedWatch Tool displays a probability of greater than 50% for a rate hike at the December 2026 meeting on October 28, 2026.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.