Apple will publicly announce the termination or non-renewal of its memory chip supply agreement with CXMT by 2026-11-27.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Apple will publicly announce the termination or non-renewal of its memory chip supply agreement with CXMT by 2026-11-27.
Reasoning trace
- Parallel: U.S. sanctions on Huawei (2020), sim=7
- Washington's pressure on Apple to abandon the Chinese memory chip deal mirrors the 2020 sanctions that forced companies to cut ties with Huawei, leading to public announcements of severed supply relationships.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.