Anthropic will publicly file its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC on or before 2026-10-30.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 32 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Anthropic will publicly file its S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC on or before 2026-10-30.
Reasoning trace
- Signpost: Anthropic files its S-1 with the SEC, a formal step toward its IPO.
- Anthropic proceeds with its planned IPO, a major capital markets event.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.