New US or EU sanctions on Iran are announced before 2026-12-06.
Posted 2026-10-11 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
New US or EU sanctions on Iran are announced before 2026-12-06.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: iran_sanctions (instance 7)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 82% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Department of the Treasury publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) in the Federal Register regarding new Iran sanctions measures.
- leading indicator The US Department of the Treasury issues a press release announcing the designation of specific Iranian entities or individuals as Specially Designated Nationals (SDNs).
- milestone The European Commission publishes a formal proposal to the Council for an amending Regulation updating the annexes of the Iran restrictive measures.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.