Will China's next customs trade report by 10 Nov 2026 show YoY import growth at or above zero?
Posted 2026-10-16 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The General Administration of Customs of China publishes monthly statistics on the value of goods imported and exported. These figures are key indicators for analyzing the country's external trade balance and supply chain activity.
The claim
The next China customs trade release, published by 2026-11-10, reports year-over-year import growth at or above zero.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_imports_yoy (instance 3)
Evidence so far
4 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-17) — 63% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- precondition China's General Administration of Customs publishes the monthly trade statistics release for October 2026
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.