OpenAI or Synopsys will file an SEC Form 8-K or equivalent disclosure specifying the exact revenue-share percentage or financial terms of the GPT-Synopsys agreement by October 15, 2026.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
OpenAI or Synopsys will file an SEC Form 8-K or equivalent disclosure specifying the exact revenue-share percentage or financial terms of the GPT-Synopsys agreement by October 15, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Standard disclosure requirements for material multi-year commercial agreements between public companies
- Investor scrutiny following the initial announcement requires clarification of the 'revenue share' mentioned in press
- Analyst demand for concrete metrics to model future cash flows
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition OpenAI is listed as a public reporting company on the SEC EDGAR database with an active CIK
- leading indicator OpenAI's legal counsel or disclosure committee publicly confirms the materiality of the Synopsys agreement for financial reporting purposes
- precondition Synopsys files an SEC Form 8-K or 10-Q that includes the specific revenue-share percentage or financial terms of the GPT-Synopsys agreement
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.