Will at least one FOMC member dissent for a rate hike in Dec 2026?
Posted 2026-11-01 — 39 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest rate targets. Its official statements record the votes of participating members, noting any dissents from the majority decision.
The claim
At least one voting FOMC member dissents in favor of a rate increase at the Federal Reserve's December 2026 policy meeting, per the official FOMC statement.
Reasoning trace
- Two officials broke from consensus right after the October hold to call for hikes
- Rising CPI gives hawks justification to formalize the dissent
- Whether either of them holds a 2026 vote is uncertain, which caps the probability
Evidence so far
5 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-01) — 57% at mint → 78% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.