Within the next 45 days, at least one hyperscaler (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, or Meta) will publicly disclose a new dedicated nuclear power purchase agreement or on-site generation deal exceeding 500 MW for AI data center use.
Posted 2026-09-09 — 45 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Within the next 45 days, at least one hyperscaler (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, or Meta) will publicly disclose a new dedicated nuclear power purchase agreement or on-site generation deal exceeding 500 MW for AI data center use.
Reasoning trace
- AI compute demand outpaces grid interconnect timelines
- Hyperscalers race to secure firm baseload before 2027 capacity crunch
- New PPA or SMR/nuclear deal announced
Evidence so far
23 confirming · 1 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 10 times since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 20% at mint → 78% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.