By 2026-10-28, the UK government will have formally launched the new UK Export Finance loan guarantee scheme, publishing its terms and eligibility criteria on the UKEF website.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, the UK government will have formally launched the new UK Export Finance loan guarantee scheme, publishing its terms and eligibility criteria on the UKEF website.
Reasoning trace
- Government announces new UKEF loan guarantee
- Government officials draft and approve scheme terms
- UKEF formally launches the scheme with published details
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 83% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator UKEF issues a press release or official statement announcing the upcoming launch of the new loan guarantee scheme observed
- precondition The UK government publishes a formal announcement or press release confirming the launch of the new UKEF loan guarantee scheme observed
- precondition UKEF publishes the scheme's terms and eligibility criteria on its official website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.