Will WHO or DRC/Uganda declare Ebola contained or PHEIC by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-08-22 — 70 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The World Health Organization and national health ministries monitor disease outbreaks to determine when transmission has stopped or when international coordination is required. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern is a specific designation used to mobilize global resources during severe health crises.
The claim
By end of October 2026, the WHO or the DRC/Uganda health ministry will formally declare an Ebola outbreak in central Africa contained (end-of-outbreak declaration) or, alternatively, escalate the response to a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
Reasoning trace
- Ebola containment appears as a repeated threat in the needs signal
- Ebola outbreaks typically resolve to either containment or escalation within ~8-12 weeks
- WHO IHR mechanism forces a formal status declaration one way or the other
Evidence so far
17 confirming · 16 denying signals · 2 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 38 times since mint (last on 2026-10-24) — 25% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.