The Iraqi government signs a formal bilateral defense or security cooperation agreement with Turkey by October 20, 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 20 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Iraqi government signs a formal bilateral defense or security cooperation agreement with Turkey by October 20, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- US troop withdrawal completes
- Iraqi government seeks immediate security guarantees to fill the vacuum
- Turkey emerges as a viable regional partner for formalized security cooperation
- Bilateral defense agreement is signed
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Iraqi government and the Turkish government announce a scheduled date for the signing ceremony of the bilateral defense agreement.
- milestone The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes a draft or final text of the bilateral security cooperation agreement for public review.
- milestone The Iraqi government and the Turkish government announce the completion of negotiations for a bilateral defense or security cooperation agreement.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.