By 2026-11-30, Vladimir Putin will sign a decree adding UK officials to Russia's 'stop list' of persons banned from entering Russia, in response to the UK's 1 October 2026 sanctions package.
Avaldatud 2026-10-01 — 60 päeva enne tähtaega, väidetud enne tulemuse selgumist.
Väide
By 2026-11-30, Vladimir Putin will sign a decree adding UK officials to Russia's 'stop list' of persons banned from entering Russia, in response to the UK's 1 October 2026 sanctions package.
Põhjendusahel
- Base rate: Russia has responded to nearly every major UK sanctions package since 2022 with a reciprocal stop-list or diplomatic measure within weeks ≈ 80%.
- The UK announced 31 new sanctions on 1 October 2026, and the Kremlin's same-week tit-for-tat expulsion of Hungarian diplomats shows the reflexive reciprocity pattern is active.
- The probability is below the base rate because some retaliation is handled by the Foreign Ministry rather than a Putin-signed decree, but the recent Kubilius stop-list precedent indicates Putin-signature decrees are the current instrument.
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Tõenäosuse ajalugu
Uuendatud 1 kord alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-10-01) — 70% alguses → 79% täna.
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