By 2026-11-30, Vladimir Putin will sign a decree adding UK officials to Russia's 'stop list' of persons banned from entering Russia, in response to the UK's 1 October 2026 sanctions package.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-11-30, Vladimir Putin will sign a decree adding UK officials to Russia's 'stop list' of persons banned from entering Russia, in response to the UK's 1 October 2026 sanctions package.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Russia has responded to nearly every major UK sanctions package since 2022 with a reciprocal stop-list or diplomatic measure within weeks ≈ 80%.
- The UK announced 31 new sanctions on 1 October 2026, and the Kremlin's same-week tit-for-tat expulsion of Hungarian diplomats shows the reflexive reciprocity pattern is active.
- The probability is below the base rate because some retaliation is handled by the Foreign Ministry rather than a Putin-signed decree, but the recent Kubilius stop-list precedent indicates Putin-signature decrees are the current instrument.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.