Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal peace agreement by 29 November 2026?
Avaldatud 2026-10-21 — 39 päeva enne tähtaega, väidetud enne tulemuse selgumist.
Russia and Ukraine are the primary parties in an ongoing armed conflict that began with the full-scale invasion in 2022. A formal peace agreement would involve a legally binding document ending hostilities and establishing diplomatic relations between the two states.
Väide
No formal signed ceasefire, armistice, or comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is publicly ratified by 2026-11-29.
Põhjendusahel
- Reconciled from: cross_impact, deep_analysis, linchpin, master, node_anomaly_trigger, signpost, structured_analogy (9 predictions)
Tõendid seni
11 kinnitavat · 0 ümberlükkavat signaali · 1 kinnitust · 3 murtud eeldust. Tõendid ise on osa täisdossiest.
Tõenäosuse ajalugu
Uuendatud 3 korda alates lisamisest (viimati 2026-10-22) — 86% alguses → 82% täna.
Mida jälgida
- eeltingimus The United States, China, or Russia does not publicly announce a veto threat or refusal to support a draft Security Council resolution on a Ukraine ceasefire.
- juhtnäitaja No draft resolution text containing 'ceasefire' or 'peace framework' regarding Ukraine is circulated to Security Council members via the UN Digital Library or official UN channels.
- eeltingimus The Russian or Ukrainian government publicly announces a signed bilateral peace or ceasefire agreement with the other party.
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