Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal peace agreement by 29 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-21 — 39 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Russia and Ukraine are the primary parties in an ongoing armed conflict that began with the full-scale invasion in 2022. A formal peace agreement would involve a legally binding document ending hostilities and establishing diplomatic relations between the two states.
The claim
No formal signed ceasefire, armistice, or comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is publicly ratified by 2026-11-29.
Reasoning trace
- Reconciled from: cross_impact, deep_analysis, linchpin, master, node_anomaly_trigger, signpost, structured_analogy (9 predictions)
Evidence so far
11 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-10-22) — 86% at mint → 82% today.
What to watch
- precondition The United States, China, or Russia does not publicly announce a veto threat or refusal to support a draft Security Council resolution on a Ukraine ceasefire.
- leading indicator No draft resolution text containing 'ceasefire' or 'peace framework' regarding Ukraine is circulated to Security Council members via the UN Digital Library or official UN channels.
- precondition The Russian or Ukrainian government publicly announces a signed bilateral peace or ceasefire agreement with the other party.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.