By 2026-12-08, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations will officially confirm that the drone strike on the Omsk oil refinery resulted in a fire that was fully extinguished and caused no casualties.
Posted 2026-10-09 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-12-08, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations will officially confirm that the drone strike on the Omsk oil refinery resulted in a fire that was fully extinguished and caused no casualties.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries and missile plants have been a near-constant feature of the war, with multiple such strikes per month ≈ 90% over a 2-month window.
- Recent signals indicate continued strikes on missile plants and oil refineries alongside the Yandex attacks, showing the campaign is ongoing and not paused.
- The 5 October trilateral talks are unlikely to produce a ceasefire before 15 November (open prediction p=0.89), so the military campaign will continue through the window.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.