Will the US Department of Energy announce at least one additional Strategic Petroleum Reserve loan or sale before 2026-12-15?

probability 78% deadline 2026-12-15 (56d left) Energy

Posted 2026-09-29 — 77 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The United States Department of Energy maintains the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a government-owned stockpile of crude oil authorized for release through loans or sales under federal statute. Such transactions are announced publicly when approved. The question addresses whether any announcement of this type, beyond one referenced prior action, will occur by the specified date.

The claim

The US Department of Energy announces at least one additional Strategic Petroleum Reserve loan or sale (beyond the 40 million barrel action) before 2026-12-15

Reasoning trace

Iran-Hormuz disruption keeps oil/diesel elevated
Political pressure on Biden/Trump to control fuel prices intensifies through winter heating season
DOE responds with additional SPR release to signal supply management
Announcement is made publicly

Evidence so far

2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 15 times since mint (last on 2026-10-19) — 82% at mint → 78% today.

What to watch

precondition The US Department of Energy issues a public announcement or press release authorizing a new Strategic Petroleum Reserve loan or sale. observed
precondition The US Department of Energy publishes a public notice or press release announcing a new Strategic Petroleum Reserve release or sale distinct from the 40 million barrel action observed
leading indicator US crude oil or diesel futures prices rise above $90 per barrel observed

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.